Expectancy Calculator
What one average trade is actually worth, in R and in cash. If this number is negative, no position size can save you.
Your averages
The formula
If this number is negative, no position size can save you — more trades just means losing faster. If it's positive, expectancy × trades × risk is your realistic monthly P&L, before the variance that the Strategy Reality Check makes visible.
Frequently asked questions
How many trades do I need before my averages mean anything?
More than feels natural — a few dozen trades can easily show a positive expectancy that is pure luck. Treat anything under ~100 trades as a rough sketch, and recompute as the sample grows.
Should my average loss include slippage and fees?
Yes, always. Use what trades actually cost you, not what the stop said they should cost. Costs are the difference between a paper edge and a real one, and they belong inside the average.
My expectancy is negative — now what?
Stop increasing size; that only loses money faster. The only fixes live inside the formula: win more often, make winners bigger, or make losers smaller. If none of those move, the strategy has no edge to manage.