Challenge Pass Probability Simulator
Enter your edge. Pick a firm's rules (or your own). We run 5,000 randomized challenge attempts and show the actual odds — pass, blow max DD, blow daily limit, or time out — so you know before you pay the fee.
Your strategy vs. the rules
Passing a challenge is a bounded first-passage problem.
The Strategy Reality Check answers "how does my edge behave over years?" — a long-run distribution question. This answers a different one: which happens first, the profit target or the drawdown floor?
Every simulated attempt runs your win rate, R:R, and risk % trade-by-trade until one of four things happens: balance reaches the target (pass), overall drawdown hits the max (bust), a single day loses more than the daily limit (bust), or the phase runs out of days (time out). The pass rate is just the share of the 5,000 runs that reached the target first.
What surprises most traders: at the same win rate, higher risk per trade often lowers the pass rate. Bigger swings reach the target faster, but they reach the drawdown floor faster too — and the daily limit is a bounded cap that punishes variance disproportionately.
Frequently asked questions
Is this a prediction of whether I will pass?
No — it is the statistical distribution your inputs imply. Real prop-firm challenges add slippage, news gaps, and your own behaviour, which usually make things worse, not better. Treat the pass rate as an upper bound on a realistic strategy.
Why does higher risk sometimes lower the pass rate?
Risk cuts both ways: bigger wins reach the target faster, but bigger losses reach the drawdown limit faster too. There is a sweet spot — usually below 1.5%/trade for tight-DD firms. Slide risk and watch the pass rate move; the peak is often lower than traders guess.
Which is harder: max drawdown or daily loss?
For most retail edges, the daily loss limit kills more attempts than the overall max drawdown. Look at the "Blew daily loss first" number — if it dominates, either lower daily risk or spread trades across more sessions.
Static vs trailing drawdown — which does this use?
Static, measured against the starting balance. Trailing drawdown ratchets up with new equity highs and requires different math — that is a separate tool. Most FTMO / FundedNext / E8 rulesets are static; check the platform detail page to confirm.